A country-by-country ranking of nine Muslim-majority Middle East states by their likelihood of joining the Abraham Accords. Kuwait leads, Lebanon and Syria follow, and Saudi normalization has cooled since the Iran War.
New York, October 8, 2026. The Council for a Secure America (CSA) today released “Abraham Accords Expansion Opportunities: Middle East Analysis,” a report ranking nine Muslim-majority Middle East countries that currently have no diplomatic relations with Israel, by their likelihood of joining the Accords.
“In the last few weeks, Americans have commemorated the twenty-fifth anniversary of 9/11, the sixth anniversary of the Abraham Accords, and the third anniversary of October 7th. These milestones and tragedies have reinforced the need for America’s continued engagement in the region. This, coupled with Iran’s increased aggression (including use of its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis) against U.S. forces and our allies, has reconfigured the geopolitical map,” said Jennifer Sutton, Executive Director of CSA.
The report and its rankings draw on expert analysis of the current geopolitical situation and a range of factors: domestic political power and government structure, public opinion and statements by political leaders, relations with the United States and Israel, regional alliances, economic and energy interests, and ongoing conflicts including Iran. It also draws on CSA’s June 2026 polling in Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. More than 80 percent of Israelis support the Abraham Accords. In Syria, 46 percent support normalization with Israel and 19 percent oppose it.
Kuwait ranks first. CSA’s report cites Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad’s closer ties to the United Arab Emirates, a 2020 signer of the Accords, and to the United States. In September 2026, Israel’s ambassador to the UAE, Yossi Shelley, said Kuwait could join the Accords within six months.
Lebanon ranks second. CSA’s polling shows a majority of Lebanese support President Aoun’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah, and in June Lebanon agreed to a U.S.-brokered “Trilateral Framework” recognizing Israeli sovereignty for the first time.
Syria ranks third, on a security-to-peace track. In September 2026, President Ahmed al-Sharaa said Israel and Syria had “almost reached agreements on 90%” of the issues between them, months after his November 2025 White House visit, the first ever by a Syrian president. CSA’s polling in Syria found that 57 percent of Syrians believe peace with Israel is likely in the future.
Saudi Arabia, seen as close to normalization before October 7, 2023, ranks fourth; the 2026 Iran War deepened its wariness. Oman, Qatar, and Iraq are rated unlikely in the near term, largely because of Iranian or Muslim Brotherhood ties, though Iraqi Kurdistan is a notable exception. Yemen and Iran rank last.
The Original Signatories
The Abraham Accords were spearheaded by the United States under President Trump in 2020:
- United Arab Emirates, September 2020
- Kingdom of Bahrain, September 2020
- Kingdom of Morocco, December 2020
- Sudan, January 2021
CSA’s Full Ranking
- Kuwait
- Lebanon
- Syria
- Saudi Arabia
- Oman
- Qatar
- Iraq
- Yemen
- Iran
“A few years ago, very few experts would have put Kuwait at the top of this list, or expected Lebanon to recognize Israel’s sovereignty. This is an evolving landscape,” said Sutton.
The Council for a Secure America is a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) organization that educates on the connection between U.S. energy security, national security, and diplomacy.